The Development of Jihadism in Jordan, 1994-2018
Institutional Affiliation
University of Oslo
Start Date
2-11-2023 10:45 AM
End Date
2-11-2023 12:15 PM
Proposal Type
Presentation
Proposal Format
On-campus
Proposal Description
Over the last decade, experts have warned against the spread of jihadism in Jordan. At first glance, their concern appears warranted. For example, despite its relatively low population, Jordan was one of the countries that contributed the most foreign fighters to jihadist groups in Syria and Iraq. Never have so many Jordanians left to fight for groups such as the Islamic State as in the 2010s.
However, we do not know for sure if jihadism constitutes a growing problem in the country because few studies have looked at its development over time. In this article, I address this gap by examining the following question: How has it evolved since the establishment of the first jihadist networks in Jordan in the 1990s?
I focus on the period until 2018 because there are less data on jihadist networks in Jordan after the fall of the Islamic State's caliphate in March 2019. I examine three parameters that together give a good indication of the development:
- Popular support for jihadist groups
- The size of the Jordanian jihadist movement
- The number of jihadist attack plots
I compare the situation in Jordan to other Arab countries. The data comes from existing literature, opinion polls, estimates of Jordanian jihadists, and a dataset I compiled of jihadist attack activity in Jordan.
The findings point to an apparent paradox. On the one hand, popular support for jihadist groups decreased after the mid-2000s. Yet, on the other hand, the Jordanian jihadist movement grew. Moreover, there were more jihadist attack plots in the 2010s than ever before. Hence, the development was not one-sided. The jihadists had fewer sympathizers in the country than before. Still, the movement's growth and the rise in terrorist plotting indicate that more sympathizers were willing to go from words to action.
The Development of Jihadism in Jordan, 1994-2018
Over the last decade, experts have warned against the spread of jihadism in Jordan. At first glance, their concern appears warranted. For example, despite its relatively low population, Jordan was one of the countries that contributed the most foreign fighters to jihadist groups in Syria and Iraq. Never have so many Jordanians left to fight for groups such as the Islamic State as in the 2010s.
However, we do not know for sure if jihadism constitutes a growing problem in the country because few studies have looked at its development over time. In this article, I address this gap by examining the following question: How has it evolved since the establishment of the first jihadist networks in Jordan in the 1990s?
I focus on the period until 2018 because there are less data on jihadist networks in Jordan after the fall of the Islamic State's caliphate in March 2019. I examine three parameters that together give a good indication of the development:
- Popular support for jihadist groups
- The size of the Jordanian jihadist movement
- The number of jihadist attack plots
I compare the situation in Jordan to other Arab countries. The data comes from existing literature, opinion polls, estimates of Jordanian jihadists, and a dataset I compiled of jihadist attack activity in Jordan.
The findings point to an apparent paradox. On the one hand, popular support for jihadist groups decreased after the mid-2000s. Yet, on the other hand, the Jordanian jihadist movement grew. Moreover, there were more jihadist attack plots in the 2010s than ever before. Hence, the development was not one-sided. The jihadists had fewer sympathizers in the country than before. Still, the movement's growth and the rise in terrorist plotting indicate that more sympathizers were willing to go from words to action.