Recent studies of the Colombian conflict have shown that struggle for resource accumulation and territorial control, in a very competitive and violent environment in which the illegal armed groups are involved, is crucial to their survival and development. Here, we applied a highly successful methodology from ecology (Ecological Niche Modelling) to the problem of identifying the ideal socioeconomic conditions for the presence of a Colombian illegal armed group, named the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). We analyzed some determining factors of FARC´s presence and permanence within the Colombian territory that reflect aspects of the socioeconomic dynamics and productive capacity at the municipality level. We found that regions with high suitability for the persistence of the FARC (those belonging to the niche) had a fiscal performance index considered as vulnerable and low per capita income levels. Additionally, to identify territories in dispute between armed groups, we compared territories with the presence of both the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC) and the FARC. Our results show that the number of municipalities with suitable conditions for the persistence of the FARC was considerably lower following the signing of the Peace Agreement between the Colombian government and the FARC.
Author Bio(s)
Alexander Alegría-Castellanos is an assistant professor at the Pontificia Universidad Javeriana in Cali, Colombia. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Kansas (E.U.A.), an M.A. in Economics from Georgetown University (E.U.A) and Universidad Alberto Hurtado (Chile), and a B.A. in Economics from the Universidad del Valle (Colombia). His research areas include applied microeconomics, conflict economics, and impact evaluation.
Laura Jiménez is an associate researcher at the Center for Mathematical Modeling (CMM), in the Universidad de Chile (Chile). Previously, she did four years of postdoctoral research, two at CMM and two at the School of Life Sciences, University of Hawaii at Manoa (E.U.A.). She holds a Ph.D. in Ecology and Evolutionary Biology from the University of Kansas (E.U.A.), an M.S. in Probability and Statistics from the Center for Mathematical Research (Mexico), and a B.S. in Mathematics from the Universidad de Guanajuato (Mexico). Her research areas include quantitative ecology, mathematical modeling for biology, ecological niche modeling, sampling design methods, macroecology, and biogeography.
Jhon Jairo Alvarado-Quintero currently leads the Cultural and Creative Observatory of the Secretary of Culture in Cali, Colombia. Before holding this position, he worked for the Information and Knowledge Team at the Colombian Ministry of Culture. He holds a B.A. in Economics from Pontificia Universidad Javeriana (Colombia), where he conducted research under the supervision of Alexander Alegría-Castellanos. Additionally, he has experience working as the Secretary of Culture of Bogotá and as a consultant in Geographic Information Systems and data analytics.
Alegría, Alexander; Jiménez, Laura; and Alvarado-Quintero, Jhon Jairo
(2024)
"Ecological Niches Applied to Socioeconomic Phenomena: The Case of the Colombian Internal Conflict,"
Peace and Conflict Studies: Vol. 31:
No.
1, Article 3.
Available at:
https://nsuworks.nova.edu/pcs/vol31/iss1/3
