By being part into the theory of the rebels' credibility dilemma, this research takes its framework in a historical analysis of relations between rebel groups and governments, in order to better understand the mechanisms of demands and negotiations between these two actors. In this paper, we propose to test the validity of the theory of the rebels' credibility dilemma in Latin America, and to provide specific precision to this geographical area. For that, our approach proposes an historical and political study on data going from 1945 to 2019. The study is characterized by the creation of specific classifications and a relative power indicator of the rebel groups, making it possible to highlight new specificities of the rebels' credibility dilemma. The results show that globally the theory seems valid on the studied area, but that new parameters can be implemented to the initial theory, namely the search for popular and international credibility, through a general model of the rebels’ credibility dilemma.


Latin America, Rebels' credibility dilemma, Game Theory, Conflict Management







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