Delphi in Criminal Justice Policy: A Case Study on Judgmental Forecasting

Authors

Kim Loyens, Katholieke Universiteit LeuvenFollow
Jeroen Maesschalck, Katholieke Universiteit LeuvenFollow
Geert Bouckaert, Katholieke Universiteit LeuvenFollow

Abstract

This article provides an in-depth case study analysis of a pilot project organized by the section "Strategic Analysis" of the Belgian Federal Police. Using the Delphi method, which is a judgmental forecasting technique, a panel of experts was questioned about future developments of crime, based on their expertise in criminal or social trends. The results demonstrate how police authorities could implement judgmental forecasting methods like Delphi methodology for the anticipation of future criminal trends, and how this technique, applied under specific conditions, can complement current crime analysis techniques. This article will not focus on criminal trends that were forecasted in the pilot project, but on the preconditions for using the Delphi method in criminal justice policy. Hence, this article could contribute to future applications of judgmental forecasting techniques by practitioners in both criminal justice systems and other policy domains.

Keywords

Delphi Method, Forecasting, Criminal Justice Policy, Police Priorities, Crime Analysis

Publication Date

11-1-2011

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 4.0 International License.

DOI

10.46743/2160-3715/2011.1313

Recommended APA Citation

Loyens, K., Maesschalck, J., & Bouckaert, G. (2011). Delphi in Criminal Justice Policy: A Case Study on Judgmental Forecasting. The Qualitative Report, 16(6), 1477-1495. https://doi.org/10.46743/2160-3715/2011.1313