Institutional Affiliation
Foundation for Partnership Initiatives in the Niger Delta
Start Date
January 2026
End Date
January 2026
Proposal Type
Presentation
Proposal Format
On-campus
Proposal Description
Violent conflicts continue to persist and escalate, with frequently changing dynamics in Nigeria. This is notwithstanding the existence of active conflict early warning and early response (CEWER) systems. While some of the CEWER systems have recorded some successes, gaps have been identified in their effectiveness, especially around how the early warning information are utilized for prompt response to prevent and mitigate conflicts. The study also identified a dearth of literature on the subject, highlighting the need for research on the effectiveness of CEWER systems in Nigeria. The study adopts a mixed research method which combines qualitative, quantitative and geospatial approaches. A total of 90 key informant interviews were conducted with purposively selected CEWER actors (18) speaking to their approaches, efforts, challenges, etc., and community members (72) on the effectiveness of the systems in terms of its impacts to peace. Conflict data is downloaded from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project to analyze the trend of conflicts within the research temporal scope (2023-2024). The data is mainly analyzed using a Before and After Action (BAA) analysis which answers the research questions on (i) the promptness of existing CEWER systems, (ii) the relationship between early warning actors and the actions taken by stakeholders, (iii) the level of utilization and impacts of the CEWER systems to conflict prevention, mitigation and resolution, and (iv) the challenges faced and how can they be improved upon. The research is key to improving peacebuilding actions by stakeholders that work on conflict management. The findings would aid improved cooperation, collaboration and consensus between conflict early warning and conflict early response actors for better outcomes. It can also be deployed for strategy development and policy formulation to drive more sustainable conflict management and peacebuilding processes in Nigeria.
Included in
Development Studies Commons, Human Geography Commons, Peace and Conflict Studies Commons, Politics and Social Change Commons, Social Statistics Commons
From Warning to Action: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Conflict Early Warning and Early Response Systems in Nigeria
Violent conflicts continue to persist and escalate, with frequently changing dynamics in Nigeria. This is notwithstanding the existence of active conflict early warning and early response (CEWER) systems. While some of the CEWER systems have recorded some successes, gaps have been identified in their effectiveness, especially around how the early warning information are utilized for prompt response to prevent and mitigate conflicts. The study also identified a dearth of literature on the subject, highlighting the need for research on the effectiveness of CEWER systems in Nigeria. The study adopts a mixed research method which combines qualitative, quantitative and geospatial approaches. A total of 90 key informant interviews were conducted with purposively selected CEWER actors (18) speaking to their approaches, efforts, challenges, etc., and community members (72) on the effectiveness of the systems in terms of its impacts to peace. Conflict data is downloaded from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project to analyze the trend of conflicts within the research temporal scope (2023-2024). The data is mainly analyzed using a Before and After Action (BAA) analysis which answers the research questions on (i) the promptness of existing CEWER systems, (ii) the relationship between early warning actors and the actions taken by stakeholders, (iii) the level of utilization and impacts of the CEWER systems to conflict prevention, mitigation and resolution, and (iv) the challenges faced and how can they be improved upon. The research is key to improving peacebuilding actions by stakeholders that work on conflict management. The findings would aid improved cooperation, collaboration and consensus between conflict early warning and conflict early response actors for better outcomes. It can also be deployed for strategy development and policy formulation to drive more sustainable conflict management and peacebuilding processes in Nigeria.