The Escalating Water Disputes of Central Asia: The View from Brussels
Institutional Affiliation
SUNY Cortland
Start Date
2-11-2023 3:30 PM
End Date
2-11-2023 5:00 PM
Proposal Type
Presentation
Proposal Format
On-campus
Proposal Description
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of the 3rd party role played by the European Union in addressing environmental conflicts in Central Asia. The European Union is one of the many 3rd parties in Central Asia, alongside Russia, the OSCE, the UN, the Council of Europe, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. My research question is: How successful has the EU been in addressing Central Asian conflicts, with a specific focus on the water-disputes in the Ferghana Valley? My hypothesis is that the European Union has not been successful. The EU has not made any real positive or negative impact on the conflicts, thus at least respecting the 3rd party rule of “do no harm” (Anderson, 1999) to the conflict. From a theoretical point, I place the analysis of EU’s 3rd party intervention effectiveness in the Central Asia conflicts in the EU’s ‘external governance’ literature (Lavenex and Schimmelfennig, 2009). The EU applying its approaches to solving conflicts is a form of exporting its modes of governance in its “wider neighborhood”. Methodologically, I adapt the Diehl & Druckman (2010) framework for evaluating the success of specific 3rd parties (peace operations) and assess EU’s ability to do violence abatement, conflict containment, conflict settlement, improved relations with the local population, democratization, and reconciliation/conflict transformation.
Three out of the five Central Asian republics are facing high or extremely high water stress. The water conflicts in the region are over the Syr Darya river basin and that is what this study will focus on. I analyze data from the EU strategies and statements about conflicts in Central Asia, and from the EU’s multi-track diplomacy attempts through the Central Asia Education Platform I and II (2012-2015, 2015-2019), the EU–Central Asia Platform on Environment and Water Cooperation, and the various EU Central Asia Rule of Law Programmes/Platforms.
The Escalating Water Disputes of Central Asia: The View from Brussels
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of the 3rd party role played by the European Union in addressing environmental conflicts in Central Asia. The European Union is one of the many 3rd parties in Central Asia, alongside Russia, the OSCE, the UN, the Council of Europe, and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. My research question is: How successful has the EU been in addressing Central Asian conflicts, with a specific focus on the water-disputes in the Ferghana Valley? My hypothesis is that the European Union has not been successful. The EU has not made any real positive or negative impact on the conflicts, thus at least respecting the 3rd party rule of “do no harm” (Anderson, 1999) to the conflict. From a theoretical point, I place the analysis of EU’s 3rd party intervention effectiveness in the Central Asia conflicts in the EU’s ‘external governance’ literature (Lavenex and Schimmelfennig, 2009). The EU applying its approaches to solving conflicts is a form of exporting its modes of governance in its “wider neighborhood”. Methodologically, I adapt the Diehl & Druckman (2010) framework for evaluating the success of specific 3rd parties (peace operations) and assess EU’s ability to do violence abatement, conflict containment, conflict settlement, improved relations with the local population, democratization, and reconciliation/conflict transformation.
Three out of the five Central Asian republics are facing high or extremely high water stress. The water conflicts in the region are over the Syr Darya river basin and that is what this study will focus on. I analyze data from the EU strategies and statements about conflicts in Central Asia, and from the EU’s multi-track diplomacy attempts through the Central Asia Education Platform I and II (2012-2015, 2015-2019), the EU–Central Asia Platform on Environment and Water Cooperation, and the various EU Central Asia Rule of Law Programmes/Platforms.