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Abstract
This article provides an in-depth case study analysis of a pilot project organized by the section "Strategic Analysis" of the Belgian Federal Police. Using the Delphi method, which is a judgmental forecasting technique, a panel of experts was questioned about future developments of crime, based on their expertise in criminal or social trends. The results demonstrate how police authorities could implement judgmental forecasting methods like Delphi methodology for the anticipation of future criminal trends, and how this technique, applied under specific conditions, can complement current crime analysis techniques. This article will not focus on criminal trends that were forecasted in the pilot project, but on the preconditions for using the Delphi method in criminal justice policy. Hence, this article could contribute to future applications of judgmental forecasting techniques by practitioners in both criminal justice systems and other policy domains.
Keywords
Delphi Method, Forecasting, Criminal Justice Policy, Police Priorities, Crime Analysis
Publication Date
11-1-2011
Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 4.0 International License.
DOI
10.46743/2160-3715/2011.1313
Recommended APA Citation
Loyens, K., Maesschalck, J., & Bouckaert, G. (2011). Delphi in Criminal Justice Policy: A Case Study on Judgmental Forecasting. The Qualitative Report, 16(6), 1477-1495. https://doi.org/10.46743/2160-3715/2011.1313
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Quantitative, Qualitative, Comparative, and Historical Methodologies Commons, Social Statistics Commons