Department of Conflict Resolution Studies Theses and Dissertations

Copyright Statement

All rights reserved. This publication is intended for use solely by faculty, students, and staff of Nova Southeastern University. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, now known or later developed, including but not limited to photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author or the publisher.

Date of Award

1-1-2026

Document Type

Dissertation - NSU Access Only

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy in Conflict Analysis and Resolution

First Advisor

Neil Katz

Keywords

Conflict regulation; Horizontal escalation; Neorealism; Power transition theory; Taiwan Strait; U.S.-China relations

Abstract

This research explores Indo-Pacific geopolitics, focusing on the Taiwan Strait through the perspectives of neorealism and power transition theory. It argues that regional stability is maintained less by formal settlements than through managed instability, upheld by safeguards, signaling practices, and shared awareness of escalation risks. It also further develops managed instability as an explanatory framework for bounded rivalry under competitive pressure. The study examines cross-strait relations under Taiwanese Presidents Ma Ying-jeou and Tsai Ingwen, key disputes in the South China Sea (SCS), and regional mechanisms such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) processes and the Six-Party Talks. Horizontal escalation is used as an analytical tool to trace how competitive pressure spreads across military, economic, technological, informational, legal, and institutional domains, influencing incentives for restraint or risk-taking. The analysis uses publicly available documents, including official statements, defense assessments, multilateral communiqués, historical agreements, and credible open-source reporting, organized into episode narratives and analyzed through thematic coding and cross-case comparison. Findings indicate that competition persists despite narrowing power gaps, yet escalation is often moderated by institutional procedures, communication channels, and clear signaling that help prevent miscalculations. The study concludes by explaining when and how conflict regulation can substitute for formal settlement, and policy implications for improving crisis communication, strengthening institutional safeguards, and managing long-term strategic rivalries across multiple domains.

Download
To access this thesis/dissertation you must have a valid nova.edu OR mynsu.nova.edu email address and create an account for NSUWorks.

Free My Thesis

If you are the author of this work and would like to grant permission to make it openly accessible to all, please click the Free My Thesis button.

  Contact Author

Share

COinS