Date

12-7-2025

ESRP 9000 Professor

Jason Abreu, Ed.D.

ESRP 9001 Professor

Jason Abreu, Ed.D.

Executive Summary

A Strategic Research Project to Address Post-Secondary Enrollment Cliffs. Jonathan Harper, 2025: Strategic Research Project, Nova Southeastern University, Abraham S. Fischler College of Education and School of Criminal Justice. Keywords: accreditation, adjunct faculty, articulation agreement, closure, data-first strategic enrollment management, deferred maintenance, dual enrollment, endowment, enrollment cliff, first-generation student, institutional research, IPEDS, merger, National Collegiate Athletic Association, net tuition revenue, New England Commission of Higher Education, retention rate, stakeholder, student-athlete, student loan discharge, yield rate.

This Strategic Research Project was designed to provide insight to the critical challenge of the post-secondary enrollment cliff, a dramatic projected decline in college-bound high school graduates that threatens the financial sustainability of small, tuition-dependent institutions. Through a comprehensive SWOT analysis, internal and external factor evaluations, and a review of current scholarly literature, the project identifies overreliance on tuition revenue and demographic shifts as core vulnerabilities. The project synthesizes evidence from national trends and institutional data, highlighting that without innovative interventions, enrollment downturns can lead to institutional closures, student displacement, increased personal debt, and negative impacts on local economies. After evaluating four potential solutions including a digital-first enrollment strategy, financial restructuring, expanded high school partnerships, and articulation agreements with community colleges, expanding in-state dual enrollment and career pathway partnerships was identified as the most effective approach. This strategy aligns with the organization’s mission of transformation and service, leverages its academic strengths, and creates robust, equitable pipelines from local school districts into higher education.

The action plan outlines steps by formalizing local school and employer partnerships, aligning curricula, providing comprehensive student support, securing necessary resources, and implementing continuous evaluation. The plan is supported by a rigorous timeline while defining goals by focusing on measurable outcomes such as enrollment growth, retention, and student success. By prioritizing strategic high school partnerships and dual enrollment, the university is positioned to stabilize enrollment, enhance access for underrepresented students and ensure long-term viability in a competitive higher education market. The project offers a scalable model for similar institutions facing demographic and financial pressures while contributing actionable recommendations for institutional resilience during enrollment declines.

Document Type

Strategic Research Project-NSU Access Only

Degree Name

Doctor of Education (EdD)

College

Abraham S. Fischler College of Education

Concentration

Sports Leadership

Language

English

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