Theses and Dissertations

Date of Award

2024

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Abraham S. Fischler College of Education and School of Criminal Justice

Advisor

William Edmonds

Committee Member

Dana Mills

Committee Member

Marcelo Castro

Keywords

Sex Offender Treatment Intervention and Progress Scale (SOTIPS), Iowa, sex offender, validity

Abstract

This study is a replication study of McGrath, Lasher, and Cumming's 2012 study. McGrath et al.'s population consisted of convicted Vermont sex offenders, while this replication study's population consisted of convicted Iowa sex offenders. Nearly 2,000 sex offenders are under the Iowa Department of Corrections community supervision (Daily Statistics-DOC Offender, 2023). Iowa uses SOTIPS, Static-99R, and the Iowa Risk Revised (IRR) to determine recidivism risk and supervision levels. The Static-99R was developed in Canada and has been validated in several jurisdictions, including Iowa (Statistical validation of the ISORA8 & Static-99 final report, 2010). The IRR was developed in Iowa using 6,337 Iowa offenders and validated using a sample of 9,387 Iowa offenders (Fischer, 1980). No other study has examined the predictive validity of SOTIPS using Iowa sex offenders.

The observational data will be analyzed using predictive statistics such as regression techniques. This replication study will follow McGrath et al.'s (2012) study of data analysis. This researcher used Area Under the Curve (AUC) to measure the accuracy of the Static-99R and SOTIPS. The AUC values and confidence levels were calculated using the trapezoidal method in SPSS. Cox regression survival analysis compared the predictive accuracy of Static-99R, the static risk factors of SOTIPS, and the dynamic risk factors scores.

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