Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles

Title

Long-Term Thermal Sensitivity of Earth’s Tropical Forests

Authors

Martin J. P. Sullivan, University of Leeds - United Kingdom; Manchester Metropolitan University - United Kingdom
Simon L. Lewis, University of Leeds - United Kingdom; University College London - United Kingdom
Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Forestry Commission of Ghana
Carolina Castilho, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA)
Flavia Costa, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA) - Manaus, Brazil
Aida Cuni Sanchez, Colorado State University; University of York - United Kingdom
Corneille E. N. Ewango, Wildlife Conservation Society, Kisangani - Democratic Republic of Congo; Centre de Formation et de Recherche en Conservation Forestiere (CEFRECOF) - Epulu, Democratic Republic of Congo; Université de Kisangani - Democratic Republic of Congo
Wannes Hubau, University of Leeds - United Kingdom; Royal Museum for Central Africa - Tervuren, Belgium; Ghent University - Belgium
Beatriz Marimon, Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso - Brazil
Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza, Jardín Botánico de Missouri - Peru
Lan Quie, University of Lincoln - United Kingdom
Bonaventure Sonke, University of Yaoundé I - Cameroon
Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez, Jardín Botánico de Missouri - Peru
Timothy R. Baker, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
Roel J. W. Brienen, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
Ted R. Feldpausch, University of Exeter - United Kingdom
David Galbraith, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
Manuel Gloor, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
Yadvinder Malhi, University of Oxford - United Kingdom
Shin-Ichiro Aiba, Hokkaido University - Japan
Miguel N. Alexiades, University of Kent - United Kingdom
Everton C. Almeida, Universidade Federal do Oeste do Par - Brazil
Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso - Brazil
Esteban Alvarez Davila, National Open University and Distance - Bogotá, Colombia
Patricia Alvarez Loayza, Duke University
Ana Andrade, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - Brazil
Simone Aparecida Vieira, Universidade Estadual de Campinas - Brazil
Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, University of Exeter - United Kingdom; National Institute for Space Research (INPE) - Brazil
Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno - Santa Cruz, Bolivia
Eric J. M. M. Arets, Wageningen Environmental Research - Netherlands
Luzmila Arroyo, Universidad Autónoma Gabriel René Moreno - Santa Cruz, Bolivia
Peter Ashton, Harvard University
Gerardo Aymard C., Herbario Universitario - Venezuela
Fabricio B. Baccaro, Universidade Federal do Amazonas - Brazil
Lindsay F. Banin, UK Centre of Ecology and Hydrology
Christopher Baraloto, Florida International University
Plinio Barbosa Carmago, Universidade de São Paulo - Brazil
Jos Barlow, Lancaster University - United Kingdom
Jorcely Barroso, Universidade Federal do Acre - Brazil
Jean-Francois Bastin, Institute of Integrative Biology - Switzerland; Ghent University - Belgium
Sarah A. Baterman, University of Leeds - United Kingdom; Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute; Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies
Hans Beeckman, Royal Museum for Central Africa - Tervuren, Belgium
Serge K. Begne, University of Leeds - United Kingdom; University of Yaoundé I - Cameroon
Amy C. Bennett, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
Erika Berenguer, University of Oxford - United Kingdom; Lancaster University - United Kingdom
Nicholas Berry, The Landscapes and Livelihoods Group - Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Lilian Blanc, CIRAD - France
Pascal Boeckx, Ghent University - Belgium
Jan Bogaert, University of Liège - Belgium
Damien Bonal, INRAE - France
Frans Bongers, Wageningen University - Netherlands
Matt Bradford, CSIRO Land and Water - Australia
Francis Q. Brearley, Manchester Metropolitan University - United Kingdom
Terry Brncic, Wildlife Conservation Society - Brazzavile, Republic of Congo
Foster Brown, Woods Hole Research Center,
Benoit Burban, Université de Guyane - French Guiana
Jose Luis Camargo, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia - Brazil
Wendeson Castro, Universidade Federal do Acre - Brazil
Carlos Ceron, Universidad Central del Ecuador - Quito
Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Universidade Federal do Acre - Brazil
Victor Chama Moscoso, Jardín Botánico de Missouri - Peru
Jerome Chave, CNRS - France
Eric Chezeaux, Rougier-Gabon
Connie J. Clark, Duke University
Fernando Coelho de Souza, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
Murray Collins, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment - London, United Kingdom; University of Edinburgh - United Kingdom
James A. Comiskey, National Park Service; Smithsonian Institution
Fernando Camejo Valverde, Proyecto Castaña - Peru
Massiel Corrales Medina, Universidad Nacional de San Agustín de Arequipa - Peru
Lola de Costa, Universidade Federal do Para - Brazil
Martin Dancak, Palacký University Olomouc - Czech Republic
Greta C. Dargie, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
Stuart Davies, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Nallaret Davila Cardozo, Universidad Nacional de la Amazonía Peruana - Peru
Thales de Haulleville, Royal Museum for Central Africa - Tervuren, Belgium; University of Liège - Belgium
Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA)
Jhon del Aguila Pasquel, Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana - Peru
Geraldine Derroire, UMR EcoFoG - French Guiana
Anthony Di Fiore, University of Texas at Austin
Jean-Louis Doucet, University of Liège - Belgium
Aurelie Dourdain, UMR EcoFoG - French Guiana
Vincent Droissant, Universite de Montpellier - France
Luisa Fernanda Duque, Fundacion con Vida - Medellín, Colombia
Romeo Ekoungoulou, Beijing Forestry University - China
Fernando Elias, Universidade Federal do Pará - Brazil
Terry Erwin, Smithsonian Institution
Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, University of Birmingham - United Kingdom
Sophie Fauset, University of Plymouth - United Kingdom
Joice Ferreira, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA)
Gerardo Flores Llampazo, Universidad Nacional Jorge Basadre de Grohmann - Peru
Ernest Foli, Forestry Research Institute of Ghana (FORIG) - Ghana
Andrew Ford, CSIRO Land and Water - Australia
Martin Gilpin, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
Jefferson S. Hall, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Keith C. Hamer, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
Alan C. Hamilton, Surrey, United Kingdom
David J. Harris, Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh - United Kingdom
Terese B. Hart, Lukuru Wildlife Research Foundation - Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo; Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History
Radim Hedl, Czech Academy of Sciences - Brno; Palacký University in Olomouc - Czech Republic
Bruno Herault, Ghent University- Belgium; CIRAD - Cote d'Ivoire; ,Institut National Polytechnique Félix Houphouët-Boigny - Yamoussoukro, Côte d’Ivoire
Rafael Herrera, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas (IVIC) - Caracas, Venezuela
Niro Higuchi, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA) - Manaus, Brazil
Annette Hladik, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturel - France
Euridice Honorio Coronado, Instituto de Investigaciones de la Amazonía Peruana - Peru
Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco - Peru
Wakter Huaraca Huasco, Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad del Cusco - Peru
Kathryn J. Jeffery, University of Stirling - United Kingdom
Eliana Jimenez-Rojas, Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Leticia
Michelle Kalamandeen, University of Leeds - United Kingdom; Laurentian University - Canada; University of Cambridge - United Kingdom
Marie Noel Kamdem Djuikouo, Université de Kisangani - Democratic Republic of Congo; Ghent University - Belgium; University of Yaoundé I - Cameroon; University of Buea - Cameroon
Elizabeth Kearsley, Ghent University - Belgium
Ricardo Keichi Umetsu, Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso - Brazil
Lip Khoon Kho, Malaysian Palm Oil Board
Timothy Killeen, Agteca - Bolivia
Kanehiro Kitayama, Kyoto University - Japan
Bente Klitgaard, Royal Botanic Gardens Kew - London, United Kingdom
Alexander Koch, University of Hong Kong - China
Nicolas Labriere, CNRS - France
William Laurance, James Cook University - Australia
Susan Laurance, James Cook University - Australia
Miguel E. Leal, Wildlife Conservation Society - Uganda
Aurora Levesley, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
Adriano J. N. Lima, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA) - Manaus, Brazil
Janvier Lisingo, Université de Kisangani - Democratic Republic of Congo
Aline P. Lopes, National Institute for Space Research (INPE) - Brazil
Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
Tom Lovejoy, George Mason University
Jon C. Lovett, University of Leeds - United Kingdom; Royal Botanic Gardens Kew - London, United Kingdom
Richard Lowe, University of Ibadan - Nigeria
William E. Magnusson, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA) - Brazil
Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte, Universidade dos Açores - Portugal; University of Helsinki - Finland
Angelo Gilberto Manzatto, Universidade Federal de Rondônia - Porto Velho, Brazil
Ben Hur Marimon Jr., Universidad do Estado de Mato Grosso - Brazil
Andrew R. Marshall, University of York - United Kingdom; University of the Sunshine Coast - Australia; North Yorkshire, United Kingdom
Toby Marthews, UK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Simone Matias de Almeida Reis, Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso - Brazil; University of Oxford - United Kingdom
Colin Maycock, Universiti Malaysia Sabah
Karina Melgaco, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
Casimiro Mendoza, Universidad Mayor de San Simón - Bolivia
Faizah Metali, Universiti Brunei Darussalam
Vianet Mihindou, Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux - Gabon; Chargé du Plan Climat - Gabon
William Milliken, Royal Botanic Gardens Kew - London, United Kingdom
Edward T. A. Mitchard, University of Edinburgh - United Kingdom
Paulo S. Morandi, Universidade do Estado de Mato Grosso - Brazil
Hannah L. Mossman, Manchester Metropolitan University - United Kingdom
Laszlo Nagy, University of Campinas - Brazil
Henrique Nascimento, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA) - Manaus, Brazil
David Neill, Universidad Estatal Amazónica - Ecuador
Reuben Nilus, Sabah Forestry Department - Malaysia
Percy Nuñez Vargas, Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas (IVIC) - Venezuela
Walter Palacios, Universidad Tecnica del Norte - Ecuador
Nadir Pallqui Camacho, University of Leeds - United Kingdom; Instituto Venezolano de Investigaciones Científicas (IVIC) - Venezuela
Julie Peacock, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
Colin Pendry, Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh - United Kingdom
Maria Cristina Peñuela Mora, Universidad Regional Amazónica Ikiam - Ecuador
Georgia C. Pickavance, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
John Pipoly, Oakland Park Parks and Recreation Division
Nigel Pitman, Chicago Field Museum
Maureen Playfair, Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname (CELOS)
Lourens Poorter, Wageningen University - Netherlands
John R. Poulsen, Duke University
Axel Dalberg Poulsen, Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh - United Kingdom
Richard Preziosi, Manchester Metropolitan University - United Kingdom
Adriana Prieto, Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Leticia
Richard B. Primack, Boston University
Hirma Ramirez-Angulo, Universidad de los Andes - Venezuela
Jan Reitsma, Bureau Waardenburg - Netherlands
Maxime Rejou-Mechain, Universite de Montpellier - France
Zorayda Restrepo Correa, Fundacion Con Vida - Colombia
Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA) - Manaus, Brazil
Lily Rodriguez Bayona, Investigacion y Manejo de Areas Naturales - Peru
Anand Roopsind, Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development - Guyana
Agustin Rudas, Universidad Nacional de Colombia - Leticia
Ervan Rutishauser, Smithsonian Institution; Carboforexpert - Switzerland
Kamariah Abu Salim, Universiti Brunei Darussalam
Rafael P. Salomão, Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia/CAPES - Belém, Brazil; Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi - Belém, Brazil
Juliana Schietti, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA) - Manaus, Brazil
Douglas Sheil, Norwegian University of Life Sciences
Richarlly C. Silva, Instituto Federal do Acre - Rio Branco, Brazil
Javier Silva Espejo, Universidad de San Antonio Abad del Cusco - Peru
Camila Silva Valeria, Lancaster University - United Kingdom
Marcos Silveira, Instituto Federal do Acre - Rio Branco, Brazil
Murielle Simo-Droissart, University of Yaoundé I - Cameroon
Marcelo Fragomeni Simon, Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (EMBRAPA)
James Singh, Guyana Forestry Commission
Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva, Jardín Botánico de Missouri - Peru
Clement Stahl, Université de Guyane - French Guiana
Juliana Stropp, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (MNCN-CSIC) - Spain
Rahayu Sukri, Universiti Brunei Darussalam
Terry Sunderland, Center for International Forestry Research - Indonesia; University of British Columbia - Vancouver, Canada
Martin Svatek, Mendel University in Brno - Czech Republic
MIchael D. Swaine, University of Aberdeen - United Kingdom
Varum Swamy, San Diego Zoo
Hermann Taedoumg, University of Yaounde 1 - Cameroon; Bioversity International - Cameroon
Joey Talbot, University of Leeds - United Kingdom
James Taplin, Innovate UK
David Taylor, National University of Singapore
Hans ter Steege, Naturalis Biodiversity Center - Netherlands; Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam - Netherlands
John Terborgh, Duke University
Raquel Thomas, Iwokrama International Centre for Rainforest Conservation and Development - Guyana
Sean C. Thomas, University of Toronto - Canada
Armando Torres-Lezama, Universidad de los Andes - Merida, Colombia
Peter Umunay, Wildlife Conservation Society; Yale University
Luis Valenzuela Gamarra, Jardín Botánico de Missouri - Peru
Geertje van der Heijden, University of Notingham - United Kingdom
Peter van der Hout, Van der Hout Forestry Consulting - Netherlands
Peter van der Meer, Van Hall Larenstein University of Applied Sciences - Velp, Netherlands
Mark van Nieuwstadt, Utrecht University - Netherlands
Hans Verbeeck, Ghent University - Belgium
Ronald Vernimmen, Data for Sustainability - Netherlands
Alberto Vicentini, Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia (INPA) - Manaus, Brazil
Ima Celia Guimarães Vieira, Instituto Federal do Acre - Rio Branco, Brazil
Emilio Vilanova Torre, University of Washington
Jason Vleminckx, Florida International University
Vincent Vos, Centro de Investigación y Promoción del Campesinado - La Paz, Bolivia; Universidad Autónoma del Beni José Ballivián - Riberalta, Bolivia
Ophelia Wang, Northern Arizona University
Lee J. T. White, University of Stirling - United Kingdom; Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux - Gabon; Institut de Recherche en Ecologie Tropicale - Libreville, Gabon
Simon Willcock, University of Bangor - United Kingdom
John T. Woods, University of Liberia
Verginia Wortel, Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname
Kenneth Young, University of Texas at Austin
Roderick Zagt, Tropenbos International - Netherlands
Lise Zemagho, University of Yaoundé I - Cameroon
Pieter A. Zuidema, Wageningen University - Netherlands
Joeri A. Zwerts, Centre for Agricultural Research in Suriname (CELOS); Utrecht University - Netherlands
Oliver L. Phillips, University of Leeds - United Kingdom

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

5-22-2020

Publication Title

Science

ISSN

0036-8075

Volume

368

Issue/No.

6493

First Page

869

Last Page

874

Abstract

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.

Comments

©2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

ORCID ID

0000-0002-7977-9496

ResearcherID

C-6533-2012

DOI

10.1126/science.aaw7578

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