Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles
Long-Term Thermal Sensitivity of Earth’s Tropical Forests
ORCID
0000-0002-7977-9496
ResearcherID
C-6533-2012
Document Type
Article
Publication Title
Science
ISSN
0036-8075
Publication Date
5-22-2020
Abstract
The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (−9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth’s climate.
DOI
10.1126/science.aaw7578
Volume
368
Issue
6493
First Page
869
Last Page
874
NSUWorks Citation
Martin J. P. Sullivan, Simon L. Lewis, Kofi Affum-Baffoe, Carolina Castilho, Flavia Costa, Aida Cuni Sanchez, Corneille E. N. Ewango, Wannes Hubau, Beatriz Marimon, Abel Monteagudo-Mendoza, Lan Quie, Bonaventure Sonke, Rodolfo Vasquez Martinez, Timothy R. Baker, Roel J. W. Brienen, Ted R. Feldpausch, David Galbraith, Manuel Gloor, Yadvinder Malhi, Shin-Ichiro Aiba, Miguel N. Alexiades, Everton C. Almeida, Edmar Almeida de Oliveira, Esteban Alvarez Davila, Patricia Alvarez Loayza, Ana Andrade, Simone Aparecida Vieira, Luiz E. O. C. Aragão, Alejandro Araujo-Murakami, Eric J. M. M. Arets, Luzmila Arroyo, Peter Ashton, Gerardo Aymard C., Fabricio B. Baccaro, Lindsay F. Banin, Christopher Baraloto, Plinio Barbosa Carmago, Jos Barlow, Jorcely Barroso, Jean-Francois Bastin, Sarah A. Baterman, Hans Beeckman, Serge K. Begne, Amy C. Bennett, Erika Berenguer, Nicholas Berry, Lilian Blanc, Pascal Boeckx, Jan Bogaert, Damien Bonal, Frans Bongers, Matt Bradford, Francis Q. Brearley, Terry Brncic, Foster Brown, Benoit Burban, Jose Luis Camargo, Wendeson Castro, Carlos Ceron, Sabina Cerruto Ribeiro, Victor Chama Moscoso, Jerome Chave, Eric Chezeaux, Connie J. Clark, Fernando Coelho de Souza, Murray Collins, James A. Comiskey, Fernando Camejo Valverde, Massiel Corrales Medina, Lola de Costa, Martin Dancak, Greta C. Dargie, Stuart Davies, Nallaret Davila Cardozo, Thales de Haulleville, Marcelo Brilhante de Medeiros, Jhon del Aguila Pasquel, Geraldine Derroire, Anthony Di Fiore, Jean-Louis Doucet, Aurelie Dourdain, Vincent Droissant, Luisa Fernanda Duque, Romeo Ekoungoulou, Fernando Elias, Terry Erwin, Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert, Sophie Fauset, Joice Ferreira, Gerardo Flores Llampazo, Ernest Foli, Andrew Ford, Martin Gilpin, Jefferson S. Hall, Keith C. Hamer, Alan C. Hamilton, David J. Harris, Terese B. Hart, Radim Hedl, Bruno Herault, Rafael Herrera, Niro Higuchi, Annette Hladik, Euridice Honorio Coronado, Isau Huamantupa-Chuquimaco, Wakter Huaraca Huasco, Kathryn J. Jeffery, Eliana Jimenez-Rojas, Michelle Kalamandeen, Marie Noel Kamdem Djuikouo, Elizabeth Kearsley, Ricardo Keichi Umetsu, Lip Khoon Kho, Timothy Killeen, Kanehiro Kitayama, Bente Klitgaard, Alexander Koch, Nicolas Labriere, William Laurance, Susan Laurance, Miguel E. Leal, Aurora Levesley, Adriano J. N. Lima, Janvier Lisingo, Aline P. Lopes, Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez, Tom Lovejoy, Jon C. Lovett, Richard Lowe, William E. Magnusson, Jagoba Malumbres-Olarte, Angelo Gilberto Manzatto, Ben Hur Marimon Jr., Andrew R. Marshall, Toby Marthews, Simone Matias de Almeida Reis, Colin Maycock, Karina Melgaco, Casimiro Mendoza, Faizah Metali, Vianet Mihindou, William Milliken, Edward T. A. Mitchard, Paulo S. Morandi, Hannah L. Mossman, Laszlo Nagy, Henrique Nascimento, David Neill, Reuben Nilus, Percy Nuñez Vargas, Walter Palacios, Nadir Pallqui Camacho, Julie Peacock, Colin Pendry, Maria Cristina Peñuela Mora, Georgia C. Pickavance, John Pipoly III, Nigel Pitman, Maureen Playfair, Lourens Poorter, John R. Poulsen, Axel Dalberg Poulsen, Richard Preziosi, Adriana Prieto, Richard B. Primack, Hirma Ramirez-Angulo, Jan Reitsma, Maxime Rejou-Mechain, Zorayda Restrepo Correa, Thaiane Rodrigues de Sousa, Lily Rodriguez Bayona, Anand Roopsind, Agustin Rudas, Ervan Rutishauser, Kamariah Abu Salim, Rafael P. Salomão, Juliana Schietti, Douglas Sheil, Richarlly C. Silva, Javier Silva Espejo, Camila Silva Valeria, Marcos Silveira, Murielle Simo-Droissart, Marcelo Fragomeni Simon, James Singh, Yahn Carlos Soto Shareva, Clement Stahl, Juliana Stropp, Rahayu Sukri, Terry Sunderland, Martin Svatek, MIchael D. Swaine, Varum Swamy, Hermann Taedoumg, Joey Talbot, James Taplin, David Taylor, Hans ter Steege, John Terborgh, Raquel Thomas, Sean C. Thomas, Armando Torres-Lezama, Peter Umunay, Luis Valenzuela Gamarra, Geertje van der Heijden, Peter van der Hout, Peter van der Meer, Mark van Nieuwstadt, Hans Verbeeck, Ronald Vernimmen, Alberto Vicentini, Ima Celia Guimarães Vieira, Emilio Vilanova Torre, Jason Vleminckx, Vincent Vos, Ophelia Wang, Lee J. T. White, Simon Willcock, John T. Woods, Verginia Wortel, Kenneth Young, Roderick Zagt, Lise Zemagho, Pieter A. Zuidema, Joeri A. Zwerts, and Oliver L. Phillips. 2020. Long-Term Thermal Sensitivity of Earth’s Tropical Forests .Science , (6493) : 869 -874. https://nsuworks.nova.edu/occ_facarticles/1092.
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