Mathematics Faculty Articles

Avian Influenza A H7N9 Has Been Established in China

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

12-2017

Publication Title

Journal of Biological Systems

Keywords

Avian influenza A H7N9 virus, Transmission dynamics, Basic reproduction number, Seasonal influenza, Reassortment

ISSN

0218-3390

Volume

25

Issue/No.

4

First Page

605

Last Page

623

Abstract

In March 2013, a novel avian-origin influenza A H7N9 virus was identified among human patients in China and a total of 124 human cases with 24 related deaths were confirmed by May 2013. From November 2013 to July 2017, H7N9 broke out four more times in China. A deterministic model is proposed to study the transmission dynamics of the avian influenza A H7N9 virus between wild and domestic birds and from birds to humans, and is applied to simulate the open data on numbers of the infected human cases and related deaths reported from March to May 2013 and from November 2013 to June 2014 by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The basic reproduction number ℛ0 is estimated and sensitivity analysis of ℛ0 in terms of model parameters is performed. Taking into account the fact that it broke out again from November 2014 to June 2015, from November 2015 to July 2016, and from October 2016 to July 2017, we believe that H7N9 virus has been well established in birds and will likely cause regular outbreaks in humans again in the future. Control measures for the future spread of H7N9 include (i) reducing the transmission opportunities between wild birds and domestic birds, (ii) closing or monitoring the retail live-poultry markets in the infected areas, and (iii) culling the infected domestic birds in the epidemic regions.

Comments

©2017 World Scientific Publishing Co Pte Ltd

DOI

10.1142/S0218339017400095

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