Mathematics Faculty Articles

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

5-18-2020

Publication Title

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering

Keywords

COVID-19, Mathematical modeling, The reproduction number, The final size

ISSN

1551-0018

Volume

17

Issue/No.

4

First Page

3637

Last Page

3648

Abstract

Based on the reported data from February 16, 2020 to March 9, 2020 in South Korea including confirmed cases, death cases and recovery cases, the control reproduction number was estimated respectively at different control measure phases using Markov chain Monte Carlo method and presented using the resulting posterior mean and 95% credible interval (CrI). At the early phase from February 16 to February 24, we estimate the basic reproduction number R0 of COVID-19 to be 4.79(95% CrI 4.38 - 5.2). The estimated control reproduction number dropped rapidly to Rc ≈ 0.32(95% CrI 0.19 - 0.47) at the second phase from February 25 to March 2 because of the voluntary lockdown measures. At the third phase from March 3 to March 9, we estimate Rc to be 0.27 (95% CrI 0.14 - 0.42). We predict that the final size of the COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea is 9661 (95% CrI 8660 - 11100) and the whole epidemic will be over by late April. It is found that reducing contact rate and enhancing the testing speed will have the impact on the peak value and the peak time.

Comments

©2020 the Author(s), licensee AIMS Press. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0)

Additional Comments

China Postdoctoral Science Foundation grant #: 2019M653529; National Science Foundation of China grant #s: 11501498, 11571273, 11831012, 11771168; Natural Science Foundation of Shanxi Province grant #s: 201801D221035, 201901D111295; Scientific and Technological Innovation Programs of Higher Education Institutions in Shanxi grant #: 2019L0861; NSF grant #: 1853562; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities grant #: GK202003005

Creative Commons License

Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

DOI

10.3934/mbe.2020205

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