Marine & Environmental Sciences Faculty Articles

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

7-16-2019

Publication Title

Geophysical Research Letters

Keywords

Tropical cyclone, Intensity prediction, Rapid intensification, Drag coefficient, Upper ocean thermal structure

ISSN

0094-8276

First Page

1

Last Page

23

Abstract

A revised predictor called the net energy gain rate (NGR) is suggested by considering wind dependent drag coefficient based on the existing maximum potential intensity theory. A series of wind speed dependent NGR, known as NGR‐w, is calculated based on pre‐tropical cyclone (TC) averaged ocean temperatures from the surface down to 120 m (at 10‐m intervals) to include the TC‐induced vertical mixing for 13 years (2004–2016) in the western North Pacific. It turns out that the NGR50‐w (NGR‐w based on temperature averaged over top 50 m) has the highest correlation with 24‐h TC intensity change compared with the commonly used sea surface temperature‐based intensification potential (POT), depth‐averaged temperature‐based POT (POTDAT), and constant drag coefficient in the NGR. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the NGR50‐w, we designed and conducted experiments for training (2004–2014) and testing (2015–2016). The model with the NGR50‐w shows greater skill than the model with POTDAT or POT by reducing prediction errors by about 16%.

Comments

©2019 American Geophysical Union. All rights reserved.

Additional Comments

South Korea Ministry of Education grant #: 2017R1A2B2005019

ORCID ID

0000-0001-6519-1547

DOI

10.1029/2019GL083273

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