Spatiotemporal Analyses of the Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) for Florida’s Coral Reef

Author

• Maya Becker, Nova Southeastern UniversityFollow

Defense Date

8-6-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Degree Type

Master of Science

Degree Name

Marine Science

First Advisor

Brian K. Walker

Second Advisor

Nicholas Jones

Third Advisor

Benjamin Jessup

Keywords

spatiotemporal, expert elicitation, coral reefs, emerging hot spot, monitoring programs

Abstract

A conceptual model known as the Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) was originally constructed for biological assessments and has recently been adopted for use on Florida’s coral reef after repeated anthropogenic stressors have been linked to declines within the state of the reef. Anthropogenic pressures have reduced water quality, exacerbating coral disease and associated mortality disrupting ecosystem services and biological function throughout Florida’s coral reefs (FCR). The intention of the BCG model is to assess biological condition against increasing levels of anthropogenic stress and to identify biological attributes and measurable increments of change from long term monitoring data. Differences in spatial and temporal variation, methodology, sampling effort, and time of year of the five major Florida coral monitoring programs posed difficulty when it came to analysis. This led to the assessment of monitoring program data individually as the best chance of identifying true conditions of biological coral condition. Spatiotemporal analyses were conducted primarily using hot and cold spot analyses to define trending areas of relative high valued BCG scores (hot spots) and low valued BCG scores (cold spots) though space and time. Disturbance Response Monitoring (DRM[BJ1] ) monitoring program data was the best suited for large scale spatiotemporal analyses among habitat strata over the National Coral Reef Monitoring Program (NCRMP) due to their better temporal extent capturing many parts of the reef before major marine stressors hit giving a better sense of coral degradation among FCR. While NCRMP had good spatial coverage, the late onset of sampling beginning in 2014 limited their ability to capture major stressor events that impacted coral health early on. Coral Reef Evaluation Monitoring Program (CREMP) is best suited to look at changes in the same coral communities over time rather than at the strata level and has good temporal coverage to capture major points of change in health. The impact of SCTLD moving along the reef track was most notable surrounding Martin, and Broward-Miami subregions, as well as the Dry Tortugas region. Poor condition sites throughout the entire FCR are primarily due to the presence of small or weedy colonies and overall lack of coral density and diversity. Based on the spatiotemporal analyses conducted along FCR, it is evident that sustained anthropogenic pressures have degraded the marine system at large leaving few areas of good or improving biological condition left in present time.

NSUWorks Citation

Maya Becker. 2026. Spatiotemporal Analyses of the Biological Condition Gradient (BCG) for Florida’s Coral Reef. Master's thesis. Nova Southeastern University. Retrieved from NSUWorks, . (250)
https://nsuworks.nova.edu/hcas_etd_all/250.