Title

Interacting Regional-Scale Regime Shifts for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services

Authors

Paul Leadley, University of Paris-Sud - France
Juan Fernandez-Manjarres, University of Paris-Sud - France
Enora Bruley, University of Paris-Sud - France
Vania Proenca, Universidade de Lisboa - Portugal
Henrique M. Pereira, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research - Halle-Leipzig-Jena; Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg - Germany; Universidade de Lisboa - Portugal
Rob Alkemade, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; Wageningen University - The Netherlands
Reinette Biggs, Stockholm University - Sweden; Stellenbosch University - South Africa
William Cheung, University of British Columbia - Canada
David Cooper, Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity - Canada
Joana Figueiredo, Nova Southeastern UniversityFollow
Eric Gilman, Hawaii Pacific University
Sylvie Guenette, EcOceans
George Hurtt, University of Maryland
Cheikh Mbow, World Agroforestry Center - Kenya
Thierry Oberdorff, French Research Institute for Development - Paris
The Nature Conservancy
Jörn P. W. Scharlemann, United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre - Cambridge, United Kingdom; University of Sussex - United Kingdom
Matt Walpole, United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre - Cambridge, United Kingdom
Robert Scholes, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research - South Africa
Mark Stafford Smith, Australia Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation's Climate Adaptation Flagship - Canberra
U. Rashid Sumaila, University of British Columbia - Canada

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

8-2014

Publication Title

Bioscience

Keywords

Biodiversity change, Human–environment interactions, Tipping points, South America, Southeast Asia

ISSN

0006-3568

Volume

64

Issue/No.

8

First Page

665

Last Page

679

Abstract

Current trajectories of global change may lead to regime shifts at regional scales, driving coupled human–environment systems to highly degraded states in terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human well-being. For business-as-usual socioeconomic development pathways, regime shifts are projected to occur within the next several decades, to be difficult to reverse, and to have regional- to global-scale impacts on human society. We provide an overview of ecosystem, socioeconomic, and biophysical mechanisms mediating regime shifts and illustrate how these interact at regional scales by aggregation, synergy, and spreading processes. We give detailed examples of interactions for terrestrial ecosystems of central South America and for marine and coastal ecosystems of Southeast Asia. This analysis suggests that degradation of biodiversity and ecosystem services over the twenty-first century could be far greater than was previously predicted. We identify key policy and management opportunities at regional to global scales to avoid these shifts.

Comments

©The Author(s) 2014

ORCID ID

0000-0001-6597-0268

DOI

10.1093/biosci/biu093

This document is currently not available here.

Peer Reviewed

Find in your library

Share

COinS