PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Dogs, Rabies, Rabies virus, China, Vaccination and immunization, Transportation, Death Rates, Spatial Epidemiology
In order to investigate how the movement of dogs affects the geographically inter-provincial spread of rabies in Mainland China, we propose a multi-patch model to describe the transmission dynamics of rabies between dogs and humans, in which each province is regarded as a patch. In each patch the submodel consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and vaccinated subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The existence of the disease-free equilibrium is discussed, the basic reproduction number is calculated, and the effect of moving rates of dogs between patches on the basic reproduction number is studied. To investigate the rabies virus clades lineages, the two-patch submodel is used to simulate the human rabies data from Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, and Sichuan and Shaanxi, respectively. It is found that the basic reproduction number of the two-patch model could be larger than one even if the isolated basic reproduction number of each patch is less than one. This indicates that the immigration of dogs may make the disease endemic even if the disease dies out in each isolated patch when there is no immigration. In order to reduce and prevent geographical spread of rabies in China, our results suggest that the management of dog markets and trades needs to be regulated, and transportation of dogs has to be better monitored and under constant surveillance.
In 1999, human rabies cases were reported in about 120 counties in Mainland China, mainly in the southern provinces. Now outbreaks of human rabies have been reported in about 1000 counties and the disease has spread geographically from the south to the north. Phylogeographic analyses of rabies virus strains indicate that prevalent strains in northern provinces are indeed related to the remote southern provinces. It is believed that the geographical spread of rabies virus is caused by the transportation of dogs. In this paper, a multi-patch model is proposed to describe the spatial transmission dynamics of rabies in China and to investigate how the immigration of dogs affects the geographical spread of rabies. The expression and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number indicates that the movement of dogs plays an essential role in the spatial transmission dynamics of rabies. Numerical simulations on the effect of the immigration rate in three pairs of provinces, Guizhou and Guangxi, Hebei and Fujian, Sichuan and Shaanxi, are also performed. It is shown that the immigration of dogs is the main factor for the long-distance inter-provincial spread of rabies and it is necessary to manage such inter-provincial transportation of dogs.
Chen, Jing; Zou, Lan; and Ruan, Shigui, "Modeling the Geographic Spread of Rabies in China" (2015). Mathematics Faculty Articles. 247.