HCBE Faculty Presentations


Does Maturity Matter? The Case of Treasury Futures Volume

Event Location / Date(s)

Miami, FL

Document Type

Conference Presentation

Presentation Date


Conference Name / Publication Title

Eastern Finance Association 2019 Annual Meeting


We find that Treasury futures volume contains information about future economic and financial market conditions. Short-term and long-term volumes are economically different: A relatively higher volume in short-term (long-term) Treasury futures is counter-cyclical (pro-cyclical), preceding worse (better) economic and financial conditions. Further, we construct a single factor from futures volumes of different maturities that forecasts the performances of Treasury securities and the corporate debt and equity markets, as well as macroeconomic conditions. Our results are consistent with the idea that futures volumes from different market segments signal differences in beliefs and the overall level of risk aversion of investors.